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(frozen comment) Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3404244/
watching this forum thread 888 made with statistics on fest contest entries declining has been interesting. a lot of hard facts and numbers and a lot of people making good points in the thread. this response from him had my jaw dropping ngl, respect to these people for crunching the raw data on this

https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3404244/6#post_58620882

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

The post you linked is great but oh boy does Xaz answear grind my gears:

https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3404244/6#post_58620951

"You present me all this data but I am going to ignore it and just go off my feelings anyway. :)"

That is why you can't have rational discussions on the internet anymore. People just ignoring facts and going off their ~feelings~. Makes me just want to puke on the spot.

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

Fatui pulling the same shit too its sooo annoying

https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3404244/8#post_58621525

"i appreciate your thoughts and response to my post and i totally understand you And the numbers. i think there is Some kind of truth to what i said tho bc i have seen multiple people say it, and it's genuinely how i feel sometimes :["

the data LITERALLY says its untrue. i get the argument of perception because psychology can do some wacky stuff but why keep perpetuating it?

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

THIS IS THE “RECLAIMS SLURS” PERSON PEOPLE WERE COMPLAINING ABOUT ON SMR A WHILE BACK

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

link? now i'm curious... never liked fatui but holy shit

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

they both backed down when confronted omfg

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

You could do a case study on how disinformation spreads based on the replies to that thread. I'm glad people are calling it out, but god damn.

Thread's gonna make me go full Ben Shapiro on someone.

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

Disclaimer: not fatui or anyone else in this thread

But like... because you don't reverse demoralization with data? The playerbase, for whatever reason, has become largely demoralized when it comes to entering fest skin contests. This data proves that the FR team needs to do something about that feeling, but the raw data alone is not going to light a fire under anyone who feels crushed by how cutthroat the skin/accent scene is, an anxiety and frustration that comes out in fest contests.

888's own data proves what CAN be done to help people feel less demoralized--look at the bump in entries for Rockbreaker's when it was suddenly way more worth it to enter.

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

NAYRT
it's like 888 said though:
"For everyone else: By repeating the myth that staff only picks constant winners, that new artists don't have a chance at all, that there's constant favoritism - you're driving hate toward winners and also discouraging new artists from even trying. Don't you see how telling artists that they have almost no chance against repeat winners in the face of very real numbers saying otherwise, is a defeatist attitude that hurts everybody?

I really want to see people take a minute and consider what they're trying to accomplish when they repeat this misconception. It is entirely damaging to almost everyone who hears it, especially people who then incorporate it into their belief system and repeat it to other people.

At the very least, I think a wider trend of being informed and people not repeating misconceptions that there's no room for new artists would help. It's just defeatism at that point."

like we can very easily help people stop feeling demoralized by not repeating something that's objectively been debunked and encouraging them to look at how many first time winners there are instead

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

SA: like if someone has been feeling sad and defeated because making skins and accents is a lot of work and it feels like they're wasting their time making fest entries because they don't get picked, showing them data that actually first timers get picked all the time and they're wrong to feel the way they do isn't going to make them go oh, awesome, I'll keep entering! It's going to make them feel stupid. And that will make them dig their heels in and double down.

The discussions in the thread about why the entries are declining--it's a complex issue--are likely to be way more effective than just scolding someone for feeling down because the data says something else. If hard data fixed things we wouldn't be staring down WW3 in the real world.

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

"way more worth it to enter" and then august and mv decided to go through the submissions and just not pay the promised amount if they decided your skin wasn't earth enough. i know a lot of people who they claimed weren't actually trying and don't make skins anymore because they found that demoralizing...

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

The stats breakdown thread at the very least has motivated some people! The mistral jamboree contest thread went up from 7 pages to 10 since it got posted, with some of the newer entries were made by people who participated in the thread. Newer artists included.

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

And that's a good enough reason to keep spreading misinformation? That's what gets me about that thread. Not that people are demoralized, but that people *refuse to accept the data* because it doesn't validate them.

Like, holy shit do y'all let this slide in other areas of your life? Not to make this personal, but I'm getting big my-mom-on-vaccines energy from several users in that thread. "I don't like it so it isn't true"

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3404244/7#post_58621116
This data from Skrymer is amazing. Over 620 people are one-time festival winners. 136 have won 2, 60 have won 3, 24 have won 4, and only 12 have won 6 contests. The madlads out there with 31 and 33 wins - does anyone know who they are?

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

one of them is august! but don't look at the massive gap between the three people at 33 and 31 and the next highest repeated winner at 20 and definitely don't look at the ratio of contests entered to contests won for those higher end repeated winners. you can trust august, of course.

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

August only has 21.

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

https://anonrerising.dreamwidth.org/6764.html?thread=7726444#cmt7726444

august has a lot but august is not in the top 3 you're mad about. dug this up bc i think it's what you're maybe thinking of for the ratio of entries to wins thing, but also like... august is just a dude.

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

mythicalviper and kaenith are both at 31 fest skins in the DB, saerino has 33. I can't say for sure these are the same people in the chart as well, considering people who have changed their usernames got split into multiple entries.

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

so august got counted 3 times?

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

Wait this is the same person who was really strange about alt tags in image bbcode being included by default. To the point of suggesting it be reverted (and promptly getting clowned on by everyone who bothered to reply).

https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/sug/3404246/1
I can't archive right now, but I don't think that should be that big of an issue considering aequorin already locked the thread.

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

anyone else having a jaw drop moment at linking the decline of submissions to the 2016 election...

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3404244/8#post_58621540
the chart made in response to it is so funny

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

not that 888 has any way of knowing this but Renaiwom is severely socially inept and says things like that in earnest frequently, so I feel kind of bad because 888 will probably just have made them feel super shitty.

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[(Anonymous)]

I have said this elsewhere (not on this site, nor in regards to FR) but people have a HUGE problem with understanding the idea that 'correlation doesn't equal causation'.

I don't really know why there would be a sudden drop off, but things I can think of off the top of my head:

Number 1 is I think 2016 was about the time that they started moving from registration openings to open registration, which could have driven some of the more frequent winners off (there have been some people who feel that open registration is not good)

More frequent registration windows/open registration also meant more eyes on repeat winners, which means the whole 'why bother entering because the same people will just win' could have started gaining traction.

I think someone also said that is about when accents started gaining popularity, and accents tend to be much harder to get right (and there were still about half skins/half accents being selected, which I vaguely remember some people were upset about, since they preferred accents. That could have cause some people who made accents to simply not enter, feeling they wouldn't have a good chance of winning). Also, as it moved more to accents, people who did fully body skins probably also stopped entering, as they had less chance of winning.

then there are all the rule changes and people complaining about the rules and people who were bashing winners because their favorites from the thread didn't win and so on.

Not saying that these are the reasons, but if I recall, these were all issues that were around in 2016 and people were talking about them. All of which has the chance to drive away both newer artists and artists that aren't as confident in their art.

(frozen comment) Re: Fest Skin Submission Decline

[mindlessflight]

Alright, the horse is dead.