every year, we have more people learning what NOTN is and how much of a money-maker it is. we also get more players registering every year, older players who return just for NOTN, and multiaccounters. every year we get a bigger supply of strange chests from the ever-growing active playerbase, who are rushing to make money while the chests are newly reintroduced to the ecosystem and it's effectively just going to keep happening every year unless chest drop percentage is adjusted, which would piss off the playerbase that already floods the forum and anon blogs with 'did they change the drop rate or am i unlucky :c' when things haven't changed.
each year, the spread of NOTN strategies to make the most from it reaches wider and the ideas become more refined. the clobber build that makes grinding safer and nearly never-ending just hit greater visibility, so people can grind longer with less annoyance of having to restart and less need for the insanely expensive eliminate that otherwise would make coli hard for new players to get in on. it can be as 'weird' as you want to think it is, but logically, we had a perfect storm this year FOR this to happen.
tl;dr: not enough people are buying to outpace the undercutting caused by the usual uptick in sitewide grinding for chests, on top of more accessible coli builds becoming better known.
Plus eggs have been worth less and less each year. Noc eggs went for 300g a few years ago, and I think the average price this year was 230g. The market is down year-round, so the chest price today is a predictable consequence.
Pretty sure that both chest and egg price drops are the same - the more people hear how it's "totally easy money", the less money there actually is in them. Like, look at G1 prices, they aren't too fodder-y, which I'd attribute to fewer people hatching their eggs, thus making fewer G1s and saturating the egg side of the market.
Egg drop odds are the same-ish 8-10% they were for the last few years.
There are more and more people each year who have played the previous years, meaning they got all the familiars and apparel they needed, and don't consider the eggs worth it. So, they sell the chests.
Then you have all the people talking about how much they make selling strange chests, and people jump on it, leading to increasing supply of chests on the market, while demand for them is down due to most people wanting to sell, not buy.
Even the new apparel/familiars available through the strange chests are enough incentive for most people, as they figure they will buy the cheap familiars near the end of the fest instead of gambling to open the chests.
You also have to account for it being easier to get strange chests, not just through the coli.
When I joined, you could trade with swipp for strange chests, but you had to hope that you were on at the time the items you got through the coli were in the trade, and most of the items (from what I remember) for each trade did NOT drop alongside the other item (there were a couple that did).
With the Grand Exchange, you don't have to rely on RNG and luck to trade. They are available all the time. So, you aren't going to miss that trade with the items you have, because you were asleep or at work.
You now also get item drops from just about any activity, which, while isn't as good as the coli, still helps. Strange Chests themselves drop from most activities.
Also; there are more NotN enemies per venue now, because there are more familiars! They have a higher chance of dropping chests vs regular enemies, and they presumably make up a higher proportion of encounters than previously (unless staff has accounted for this by making the packs of NotN enemies appear at a constant rate, regardless of how many individual types there are)
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Re: to the people tanking the chest prices
(Anonymous) 2024-12-23 10:54 pm (UTC)(link)its not normal for strange chests to get this low within a day, anon is right, this is weird and people are being stupid
Re: to the people tanking the chest prices
(Anonymous) 2024-12-23 11:14 pm (UTC)(link)it's the amount of players, I think
there is too much offer vs the demand compared to previous years
Re: to the people tanking the chest prices
(Anonymous) 2024-12-23 11:33 pm (UTC)(link)Re: to the people tanking the chest prices
(Anonymous) 2024-12-24 01:47 am (UTC)(link)Re: to the people tanking the chest prices
(Anonymous) 2024-12-24 01:54 am (UTC)(link)each year, the spread of NOTN strategies to make the most from it reaches wider and the ideas become more refined. the clobber build that makes grinding safer and nearly never-ending just hit greater visibility, so people can grind longer with less annoyance of having to restart and less need for the insanely expensive eliminate that otherwise would make coli hard for new players to get in on. it can be as 'weird' as you want to think it is, but logically, we had a perfect storm this year FOR this to happen.
tl;dr: not enough people are buying to outpace the undercutting caused by the usual uptick in sitewide grinding for chests, on top of more accessible coli builds becoming better known.
Re: to the people tanking the chest prices
(Anonymous) 2024-12-24 08:18 am (UTC)(link)Re: to the people tanking the chest prices
(Anonymous) 2024-12-24 11:12 am (UTC)(link)Re: to the people tanking the chest prices
(Anonymous) 2024-12-24 11:54 am (UTC)(link)Egg drop odds are the same-ish 8-10% they were for the last few years.
Re: to the people tanking the chest prices
(Anonymous) 2024-12-24 03:08 pm (UTC)(link)There are more and more people each year who have played the previous years, meaning they got all the familiars and apparel they needed, and don't consider the eggs worth it. So, they sell the chests.
Then you have all the people talking about how much they make selling strange chests, and people jump on it, leading to increasing supply of chests on the market, while demand for them is down due to most people wanting to sell, not buy.
Even the new apparel/familiars available through the strange chests are enough incentive for most people, as they figure they will buy the cheap familiars near the end of the fest instead of gambling to open the chests.
Re: to the people tanking the chest prices
(Anonymous) 2024-12-24 03:29 pm (UTC)(link)You also have to account for it being easier to get strange chests, not just through the coli.
When I joined, you could trade with swipp for strange chests, but you had to hope that you were on at the time the items you got through the coli were in the trade, and most of the items (from what I remember) for each trade did NOT drop alongside the other item (there were a couple that did).
With the Grand Exchange, you don't have to rely on RNG and luck to trade. They are available all the time. So, you aren't going to miss that trade with the items you have, because you were asleep or at work.
You now also get item drops from just about any activity, which, while isn't as good as the coli, still helps. Strange Chests themselves drop from most activities.
This again leads to more supply.
Re: to the people tanking the chest prices
(Anonymous) 2025-01-03 06:33 am (UTC)(link)Also; there are more NotN enemies per venue now, because there are more familiars! They have a higher chance of dropping chests vs regular enemies, and they presumably make up a higher proportion of encounters than previously (unless staff has accounted for this by making the packs of NotN enemies appear at a constant rate, regardless of how many individual types there are)