The cross-site trading has honestly been pretty even, tbf. There's a lot of KS items available for gems that aren't really moving in the market (FR favored), but wolves are going for insane gem prices on a semi-regular basis (arguably pretty even), and it's nearly impossible to exchange gems for moonstones (HEAVILY LW favored, though that's to be expected with premium currency on a new game vs one that's been around 10 years). So it doesn't really seem to be that it's a one-way LW->FR, and more that different markets are moving in different directions.
Definitely agree that it's not going to kill FR, don't get me wrong, but I do feel that it's fair to consider it a threat in that it's a growing competitor (not in terms of like, "X game is gonna be the Y game killer!" but in terms of taking a portion of marketshare that FR had a virtual monopoly on previously). How many people bought moonstones with $$$ that would've otherwise put that into gems? Probably not a ton, but definitely more than none. A competitor doesn't have to be a lethal threat to still spur competition within a market and get market players trying to draw eyeballs back to them specifically.
Not sure how actively you've been involved in the LW to FR cross-site trading market, but it's not as active as you're making it out to be. There is a very heavy offset of people trying to trade for FR, compared to those trying to trade in the reverse.
I honestly thought the site-to-site trades were more or less equal, going by the threads on Items sales talk about both wanting lorwolf stuff and fr stuff.
I've sold a lot of my moonstones and all of 4 digit wild wolves. I just have a few 5 digit WW's and a handful of moonstones left. Not holding much hope of selling items, but eh. I've made like 10kg.
OP/poster of the "Different markets moving in different ways" post -- it really depends on what you're looking at.
LW KS items for gems are moving very slowly, but people willing to do LWKS for FR items is moving reasonably. The REALLY hard items to get like the alpha Golden Unicorn has been selling reliably the few times it shows up, and Bracchus scrolls are hit or miss depending on price point.
Wild wolves, when not priced extortionately (random-color 5d for $50 worth of gems) are hit or miss on sales, but as another user pointed out, they're not unreliable in that regard. I've made a few purchases and sales myself, and know several people who have as well.
Moonstones sales for gems are being devoured near instantly (or so it feels like), while threads buying Moonstones with Gems are fighting amongst each other for the almost non-existent supply.
So it really depends on what market you're looking at, as I said originally. Some things are FR favored and get bumped with no changes (especially people with outdated prices like people trying to sell LWKS for 10kg when the price is closer to 5 now), while some things are LW favored and get bumped without any success (threads trying to buy ms with gems).
Yeah, it's honestly been really interesting to watch LW specifically. Trades are a lot more even and long-lived than most other sites I've seen released. When Furvilla released, the first 24h was basically 100% FR->FV, but after the second or third day, it was almost entirely reversed to be FV->FR. DV I was paying a bit less attention to, but seem to remember a few friends saying that turned within a week to be mostly DV->FR. LW by comparison has had a really interesting diversity in that it really depends on what market you're looking at, and most of them have remained relatively stable across the last month-ish.
I think, personally, it points to LW having staying power barring some sort of active colossal fuck-up that sends people away in droves (nerfing WW encounter rate looked like it had potential but also felt like people overreacting, and it was reverted within hours). It'll be interesting to see how it goes.
In LW's favor, the daily activities are arranged so that you can do as little or as much as you want, provided you have the time, and it doesn't punish you for not logging in every day -- on the contrary, the wolves recover stamina on their own over time.
If enough people join and start spending real money to buy currency and put that into circulation, it might get closer to FR's levels of feasibility of acquiring premium currency without spending money.
Yeah, I think LW genuinely does a pretty good job of balancing the tightrope between hardcore 16-hour-a-day grinders and "log in for 5 minutes for dailies once a day" players.
That said, it actually turns out that even just buying pebbles is difficult, which I wasn't expecting. I've been trying to offer gems for pebbles (figuring I could then later convert the pebbles on LW to MS), but even that's been really difficult to find. So it seems like, in general, KS items on LW are oversaturated, but currency in general is highly prized, with wolves being somewhere in between.
"Yeah, I think LW genuinely does a pretty good job of balancing the tightrope between hardcore 16-hour-a-day grinders and "log in for 5 minutes for dailies once a day" players."
The pebbles you get for not excessively grinding though generally can't be used to buy much for you on the site though, at least not right now. KS backers also get help from the big pebble rewards their companions give them, but not everyone bought into the KS.
AYRT. I've been pretty actively involved in it, mostly on the FR->LW end (since I'm pretty much set for life on FR wealth.)
As someone who's been trying to trade gems -> MS and competing with about 5-6 other threads of the same recognizable users who have also been trying to do the same for quite some time, I have found the demand greatly exceeds supply in that regard, hence saying it was so difficult to find. (It's also driven up the ratio, but people still aren't selling MS to G very commonly even when offering the best rates in ibaz.)
WWs are extremely subjective, but I've been seeing a bunch change hands. Difficulty with that is that because it's such a subjective thing, it's hard to say whether the ones that don't sell are because there's no interest, because they were priced too high for their actual value, or because they're just not finding the eyes of the right people to find them worth buying.
LW KS items, as I said, have been mostly languishing but I've seen a few sales here and there, and I've been seeing them fairly commonly used in larger ticket sales as item-to-item transactions.
My summary of "There's a lot of KS items available for gems that aren't really moving in the market (FR favored), but wolves are going for insane gem prices on a semi-regular basis (arguably pretty even), and it's nearly impossible to exchange gems for moonstones (HEAVILY LW favored, though that's to be expected with premium currency on a new game vs one that's been around 10 years). So it doesn't really seem to be that it's a one-way LW->FR, and more that different markets are moving in different directions." still stands as an accurate summary of what I've seen.
![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
no subject
(Anonymous) 2023-05-30 01:39 pm (UTC)(link)Definitely agree that it's not going to kill FR, don't get me wrong, but I do feel that it's fair to consider it a threat in that it's a growing competitor (not in terms of like, "X game is gonna be the Y game killer!" but in terms of taking a portion of marketshare that FR had a virtual monopoly on previously). How many people bought moonstones with $$$ that would've otherwise put that into gems? Probably not a ton, but definitely more than none. A competitor doesn't have to be a lethal threat to still spur competition within a market and get market players trying to draw eyeballs back to them specifically.
no subject
(Anonymous) 2023-05-30 05:07 pm (UTC)(link)Not sure how actively you've been involved in the LW to FR cross-site trading market, but it's not as active as you're making it out to be. There is a very heavy offset of people trying to trade for FR, compared to those trying to trade in the reverse.
no subject
(Anonymous) 2023-05-30 05:43 pm (UTC)(link)da
(Anonymous) 2023-05-30 09:41 pm (UTC)(link)Re: da
(Anonymous) 2023-05-30 10:58 pm (UTC)(link)Re: da
(Anonymous) 2023-05-31 01:23 am (UTC)(link)A lot of my sales were done via PMs.
Re: da
(Anonymous) 2023-05-31 04:41 pm (UTC)(link)LW KS items for gems are moving very slowly, but people willing to do LWKS for FR items is moving reasonably. The REALLY hard items to get like the alpha Golden Unicorn has been selling reliably the few times it shows up, and Bracchus scrolls are hit or miss depending on price point.
Wild wolves, when not priced extortionately (random-color 5d for $50 worth of gems) are hit or miss on sales, but as another user pointed out, they're not unreliable in that regard. I've made a few purchases and sales myself, and know several people who have as well.
Moonstones sales for gems are being devoured near instantly (or so it feels like), while threads buying Moonstones with Gems are fighting amongst each other for the almost non-existent supply.
So it really depends on what market you're looking at, as I said originally. Some things are FR favored and get bumped with no changes (especially people with outdated prices like people trying to sell LWKS for 10kg when the price is closer to 5 now), while some things are LW favored and get bumped without any success (threads trying to buy ms with gems).
Re: da
(Anonymous) 2023-05-31 09:18 pm (UTC)(link)If wolf customization leads to cooler/prettier wolves at some point, LW might have some staying power.
Re: da
(Anonymous) 2023-06-01 04:41 am (UTC)(link)I think, personally, it points to LW having staying power barring some sort of active colossal fuck-up that sends people away in droves (nerfing WW encounter rate looked like it had potential but also felt like people overreacting, and it was reverted within hours). It'll be interesting to see how it goes.
Re: da
(Anonymous) 2023-06-01 05:37 am (UTC)(link)If enough people join and start spending real money to buy currency and put that into circulation, it might get closer to FR's levels of feasibility of acquiring premium currency without spending money.
Re: da
(Anonymous) 2023-06-01 12:05 pm (UTC)(link)That said, it actually turns out that even just buying pebbles is difficult, which I wasn't expecting. I've been trying to offer gems for pebbles (figuring I could then later convert the pebbles on LW to MS), but even that's been really difficult to find. So it seems like, in general, KS items on LW are oversaturated, but currency in general is highly prized, with wolves being somewhere in between.
Re: da
(Anonymous) 2023-06-03 10:02 pm (UTC)(link)The pebbles you get for not excessively grinding though generally can't be used to buy much for you on the site though, at least not right now. KS backers also get help from the big pebble rewards their companions give them, but not everyone bought into the KS.
no subject
(Anonymous) 2023-05-31 04:36 pm (UTC)(link)As someone who's been trying to trade gems -> MS and competing with about 5-6 other threads of the same recognizable users who have also been trying to do the same for quite some time, I have found the demand greatly exceeds supply in that regard, hence saying it was so difficult to find. (It's also driven up the ratio, but people still aren't selling MS to G very commonly even when offering the best rates in ibaz.)
WWs are extremely subjective, but I've been seeing a bunch change hands. Difficulty with that is that because it's such a subjective thing, it's hard to say whether the ones that don't sell are because there's no interest, because they were priced too high for their actual value, or because they're just not finding the eyes of the right people to find them worth buying.
LW KS items, as I said, have been mostly languishing but I've seen a few sales here and there, and I've been seeing them fairly commonly used in larger ticket sales as item-to-item transactions.
My summary of "There's a lot of KS items available for gems that aren't really moving in the market (FR favored), but wolves are going for insane gem prices on a semi-regular basis (arguably pretty even), and it's nearly impossible to exchange gems for moonstones (HEAVILY LW favored, though that's to be expected with premium currency on a new game vs one that's been around 10 years). So it doesn't really seem to be that it's a one-way LW->FR, and more that different markets are moving in different directions." still stands as an accurate summary of what I've seen.