Lightning is surprisingly small, if I remember active population estimations correctly, which might be both a huge pro or a huge con. If they manage to put out the oof front (raffles, pb, mercs, etc) correctly, I'd guess them, otherwise Wind. Overall I think that Wind will win with multiple flips as despite Lightning's "yes boss, spreadsheets, get to work" memes, my personal experience with them doesn't come anywhere close to those.